TiogaEnergy.com

by Preston Roper, EVP Corporate Development & Operations, Tioga Energy

General Comments:

• Huge attendance growth, doubling to 20,000 visitors from 2007, coupled with extreme segment optimism
• High optimism is not yet tempered to the financial/credit crisis and looming, global economic distress
• Great parties, with more free food and drink than one could wish for in the fabulous waterfront San Diego setting, which is about as good as one can imagine for a trade show (comfortable hall, great hotel and food access, perfect weather…)

2008 Takeaways:

• Average commercial PV project sizes continue upward – many, many 1-3MW projects in addition to the sub-megawatts (not to mention small utility and utility scale PV growth)
• New products announced last year to great fanfare are close to delivery and/or in low-volume production stages now – think micro-inverters, new CSP, thin film (e.g. CIGS) beyond the existing big names
• Big upstream players (cells/modules) are reaching further downstream, some testing the waters (sorry, it’s all NDA), some diving in head first (e.g. Suntech)
• Module supply is loosening, but still questionable versus growing demand.  Spot pricing may show much higher volatility than past
• This year, not a single person visiting our both – and we had a lot of visitors — asked “what’s a PPA?” High market acceptance
• The Germans are coming!!
• The suits are here
• Double Decker booths are in! (…to have Sharp’s marketing budget….that’s the life)

Looking Forward

• In many Europeans’ eyes, we are a fledgling industry, ripe for cost reduction, standardization (product, incentives, process, etc.) and large-scale deployment rolled out six-sigma style.  It’s going to be interesting.
• The big supply constraint for 2009 C&I PV may be financing.  Caveat Emptor.
• The utilities are on the way…think of the deafening, equipment sucking sound otherwise known as Spain…are the utilities, utilizing the ITC, to become the “Spain” of North America?
• Fancy trackers, intricate CSP devices…do we really need all that complicated stuff to make cheap electrons?
• The Germans are coming (did I already say that?).  The Spaniards are sitting across the aisle in first class, enjoying the exchange rate.

Great show, great week, huge opportunities.

Preston